Statement on the Geneva Interim Agreement over the Iranian Nuclear Program
This agreement doesn’t remove the Iranian threat, it only places us in a more difficult position to deal with it in the future.
2013-11-25 by Rafael Bardají
The interim agreement signed in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran removes any military option from the negotiating table, but did not put an end to the nuclear ambition of Teheran. It did not push back the bomb, only the bombing, and because of that, can only satisfy those whose greater fear is any Western military action, rather than the Iranian nuclear bomb.
The interim agreement freezes the current ability by Iran to enrich uranium, but doesn’t require, as the UN resolutions have been demanding, to dismantle and put a complete end to enrichment. On the contrary, the US and its allies are now willing to concede to Iran the right to enrich, a U-turn from previous positions, and in so doing leaves the military nuclear option of Iran ready to be reconstituted in a short period of time.
The Iranian regime is well known for its deception, cheating and lying. Teheran concealed its nuclear program for years; it deliberately obfuscated the IAEI inspectors; and it defiantly refused to comply with the demands from the UN. At the same time, Teheran neither gave up its aggressive rhetoric against Israel and the West nor its terrorist actions in the Levant or elsewhere and openly supported groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, or tyrants like Basher el Assad.
The Iranian regime is a revolutionary one, looking for hegemony in the region, within the Muslim world, and dominance elsewhere. Repressive internally and expansionist abroad, it has proved resilient and patient, and has shown a strategic and long-term vision towards its goals.
This agreement leaves the nuclear ambition of the Iranian leaders intact and only delays for a limited span of time, their development of a nuclear military capability. It is not a surprise that those who are on the front line, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, have expressed their grave concerns about this interim deal.
The Europeans may believe that Teheran is not pursuing a nuclear bomb, only technical prestige; and the Obama administration may believe that if everything goes terribly wrong, the US can contain a nuclear Iran. But those beliefs are wrong. Iran has already decided to build a nuclear bomb, though it leaves open as to when and we have had no experience containing a regime like the Iranian one.
This agreement doesn’t remove the Iranian threat; it only places us in a more difficult position to deal with in the future.