Since the signature of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, between the P5+1 (the U.S., the U.K., France, Russia, China, and Germany) and Iran, the Middle East is less stable and the world is a more inhospitable place. Only a real fix of the JCPOA can reverse the current situation. On the contrary, cosmetic changes and fake solutions expand the problem far from solving it. The deadline is fast approaching.
During the last two and a half years Iran has implemented a regional strategy to dominate the Middle East, from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad, Damascus, and Sana’a. The regime has succeeded in its undertaking — it is not a coincidence that, over the same period of time, Israel and Saudi Arabia have increased their bilateral cooperation in security and intelligence matters. Also, throughout these years, as we could witness at the end of 2017, the Iranian regime has increased its brutal repression against its own citizens; has expanded the sponsorship of terrorism through its main proxy, Hizballah; has directly attacked Israel’s territory beyond the Syrian border—where Iranians have established military facilities and strongholds—and has developed its ballistic-missiles program in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2331. In the meantime, the world has kept silent. As U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has stated; “Iran is winning” due to “poor policy choices in the Middle East”.
The Friends of Israel Initiative (FOII) will insist, as many times as necessary, on the hard and inescapable truth: Iran’s belligerent agenda endangers the security and the stability of the Middle East, the U.S., and Europe. As FOII’s Board Members José María Aznar and Stephen Harper have stated in the pages of the Wall Street Journal on March 5, the world must unite in order to stop Iran. The first step is to avoid a fake fix of the nuclear deal and, once for all, offer, deploy and enforce real solutions.
As we have noted many times—and what is undeniable evidence today—Iran’s evil attitude is nowadays a global risk. Iranian dominance of the Middle East is becoming a reality with the apparent acquiescence of most of the world’s powers. However, with the arrival of the Trump’s Administration, the U.S. has fortunately adopted a new, more intelligent approach in order to deal with Iran’s aggressive actions. Europeans should follow the example of the Trump Administration and hold Iran accountable for its illegal, destabilizing activities. For that purpose, the core of the problem resides in the current form of the nuclear deal, which has enabled Iran to rise as the new hegemon in the Middle East, threatening Israel’s existence and aspiring to lead a Shia-dominant axis in detriment of the Sunni states. Europeans should abandon the idea that quick fixes would be enough to maintain the JCPOA alive. This agreement requires a transformative amendment, not just pretending changes to keep the European diplomatic honeymoon with Iran.
In order to amend the JCPOA, the U.S. and its allies, especially the Europeans, must speak out with one voice. It is the proper time to acknowledge that the JCPOA has failed. The JCPOA is a bad deal for important reasons. Among them, it leaves Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact; it allows advanced nuclear R&D; the deal’s inspection and verification regimes are insufficient; it has allowed the development of the long-range ballistic program, which today is not only active but expanding; and the sunset clauses set out by the nuclear deal actually mean the stepwise nuclearization of Iran. The JCPOA’s side effects have included the enhancement of Iran’s regional domination and its rogue activities. The regime’s moderation is non-existent.
Despite certain points of agreement among European powers reached on the ballistic missile program, May 12 is the deadline set by the Trump Administration and it is closer than it seems. A smart, efficient, and fair JCPOA amendment should fix all the problems above indicated. It should also curb Iran’s foreign intervention and force the regime to take back all the calls for Israel's annihilation. In sum, a real fix of the JCPOA.
European nations can avoid the collapse of the JCPOA; they can instead improve it and engage Russia and China in this process. European nations should work willingly with the U.S. Administration to reach a common position, aimed to offer efficient solutions for the JCPOA and to leave behind temporary arrangements. If the U.K, Germany, France, and the U.S. agree to properly redesign the nuclear deal with Iran, the other signatories, Russia and China, will be led to accept.
Time is running out. The United States and Europe need to walk away from a superficial amendment to the nuclear agreement with Iran. Europeans would be naïve if they think that they can maintain the agreement by themselves. The JCPOA may be working, yes, but it is a very bad agreement and its effects are devastating.